PREDICTION: 2012

2012 - the date we all await with as much (maybe more) anticipation than even Y2K. Year 2000 was all about technology crashing and therefore the world ending, whereas 2012 is the historical & astronomical enigma that marks two occurrences: 1) the abrupt and unexplained end of the Mayan long count calendar; and 2) conjunction of the Winter Solstice Sun with the crossing point of the Galactic Equator that happens only once every 25,000 years or so. What do I think about all of that? The end of the long count calendar probably means, well, nothing. Hey, even 'War and Peace' has an ending, Tolstoy couldn't go on forever. Maybe the Mayans just decided to stop already and it happened to be on December 21, 2012. How many years would YOU want to make a calendar for?? As for the astronomical anomaly, it is indeed unique and an interesting point of fact. But the end of the world? Not so fast. As the scriptures say "If ye are prepared, ye shall not fear." Have you finances in order, store food, water and necessary supplies to sustain reasonable conditions to sustain life and you'll be fine. Let's talk about today for a moment and we'll return to 2012 shortly.

President Obama is off to a rocky start, no question about it. His "new Washington" and ethics reform hit a brick wall with Geithner's tax evasion scandal, then Daschle's tax evasion scandal, a Commerce Secretary that declined the post due to stark philosophical differences, and so on. Geithner is heralded as a financial whiz but didn't know he needed to pay taxes on a 1099...? Daschle for sure is the quintessential tax-loving, big Gov't spending liberal Dem - yet blatantly avoided paying his own taxes. Some bad picks to start things off. Then Obama signed-off on a 17,000 troop increase in Afghanistan. True, he did say he would reduce troop levels in Iraq, but correct me if I'm wrong, he said he would "bring them home"; by "home" did he mean Afghanistan?! Now I don't disagree with his decision - in fact I support it - but y'all elected him to be pacifist, didn't you? I thought you liberals/dems/independents wanted a more isolationist America complete with fewer foreign interventions? What happened to "bring the troops home?" Seems Obama is simply continuing the much-maligned Bush doctrine on this one. And finally, there's the economy. Obama has ripped a page from FDR's playbook and opted to spend our way back to prominence. Will that work? We don't know because the depression came to an end as a result of our involvement in major international conflict and NOT all that spending. One thing is for sure, the New Deal was slow-going until Dec 1941. So what exactly is happening here? Where's the CHANGE?? So far, no good.

That brings us to the all important date of 2012. Not the world-ending, mind bending, prophecy version; but the election year event that, in my opinion, will be the most complex election year in our nation's history. The complexity comes with the underlying social implications of that election. President Obama will be eligible for another term. Two questions hover over election year 2012: Will Obama have earned another term? And second: does he need to earn it or will he just be automatic based on ? It is my belief that if his name is even on the ballot then he will keep his post, no matter what the current state of affairs.

That President Obama is the embodiment and realization of Dr. King's dream I have no doubt. President Obama is an inspiring figure and should give inspiration to all American citizens that they can - and they should - have boundary-free aspirations. However, what I fear is that there will be an entitlement ideal that sweeps the nation come election time. That no matter the state of the economy, foreign policy, national security, etc; President Obama is still the first African-American President and he must be re-elected. In other words, now that he's been ushered in no one dare usher him out. Would anyone risk damaging their reputation; or worse - be accused of the r* word - if they didn't vote for him again? It would then be said that his was a "token" election; that the non-African American constituency just made a 4 year concession but now they're over it. My point is that I can see (and fear) that regardless of the circumstances, President Obama is automatic for another 4 years come 2012. He may well earn his keep in the White House but regardless of how poorly our nation fares, who will dare not vote for him? And if you don't re-elect the first-ever African America president, what will that make you?? The RNC must be befuddled by this unique predicament. Who should be the 2012 republican nominee? Do they even bother trying in 2012? Who will want to essentially waste a quarter-bil on a pointless campaign against arguably the most socially important president ever to take office? Or is it possible we could have the first truly uncontested re-election in history?

There is only one hope for republicans in 2012 - and dare I say it: a minority candidate. There, I said it. Because Obama's election is based as much on ideals (or more so) as on policy, it would require someone to embody similar ideals to even the playing field. Republicans have to take social implications and ideals out of the equation. Unfortunately the republican party is thin on solid, recognizable minority candidates; and that would be their own fault. Its time for republicans, and more importantly conservatives, to reach out to minorities and not only persuade them to that way of thinking but also to make a few (gulp) concessions. Soon minorities will no longer be called that, but instead will be the majority. I myself am conservative and therefore (reluctantly) a republican; so I can say WE must find a way to appeal to minorities or literally be left behind in the future of American politics.

Right now, every quality potential republican candidate is scratching his/her head, wondering if 2012 is really worth it? If it were me, I'd take a pass on 2012 and save up for 2016. Besides, if the calendar ends and the galactic alignment ushers in the end of the world, you won't have wasted your last days on an ultimately futile campaign anyway...